Beyond Crowd Judgments: Data-driven Estimation of Market Value in Association Football

Association football is a popular sport, but it is also a big business. From a managerial perspective, the most important decisions that team managers make concern player transfers, so issues related to player valuation, especially the determination of transfer fees and market values, are of major concern. Market values can be understood as estimates of transfer fees—that is, prices that could be paid for a player on the football market—so they play an important role in transfer negotiations. These values have traditionally been estimated by football experts, but crowdsourcing has emerged as an increasingly popular approach to estimating market value. While researchers have found high correlations between crowdsourced market values and actual transfer fees, the process behind crowd judgments is not transparent, crowd estimates are not replicable, and they are updated infrequently because they require the participation of many users. Data analytics may thus provide a sound alternative or a complementary approach to crowd-based estimations of market value. Based on a unique data set that is comprised of 4217 players from the top five European leagues and a period of six playing seasons, we estimate players’ market values using multilevel regression analysis. The regression results suggest that data-driven estimates of market value can overcome several of the crowd’s practical limitations while producing comparably accurate numbers. Our results have important implications for football managers and scouts, as data analytics facilitates precise, objective, and reliable estimates of market value that can be updated at any time

Increased dietary protein in the second trimester of gestation increases live weight gain and carcass composition in weaner calves to 6 months of age

Genetically similar nulliparous Polled Hereford heifers from a closed pedigree herd were used to evaluate the effects of dietary protein during the first and second trimester of gestation upon fetal, placental and postnatal growth. Heifers were randomly allocated into two groups at 35d post AI (35dpc) to a single bull and fed High (15.7%CP) or Low (5.9%CP) protein in the first trimester (T1). At 90dpc, half of each nutritional treatment group changed to a High or Low protein diet for the second trimester until 180dpc (T2). High protein intake in the second trimester increased birthweight in females (P = 0.05) but there was no effect of treatment upon birthweight when taken over both sexes. Biparietal diameter was significantly increased by high protein in the second trimester with the effect being greater in the female (P = 0.02) but also significant overall (P = 0.05). Placental weight was positively correlated with birth weight, fibroblast volume, and relative blood vessel volume (P < 0.05). Placental fibroblast density was increased and trophoblast volume decreased in the high protein first trimester treatment group (P <0.05). There was a trend for placental weight to be increased by high protein in the second trimester (P = 0.06). Calves from heifers fed the high protein treatment in the second trimester weighed significantly more on all occasions preweaning (at one month (P = 0.0004), 2 mths (P = 0.006), 3 mths (P = 0.002), 4 mths (P = 0.01), 5 mths (P = 41 0.03), 6 mths (P = 0.001)), and grew at a faster rate over the 6 month period. By 6 mths of age the calves from heifers fed high nutrition in the second trimester weighed 33kg heavier than those fed the low diet in the second trimester. These results suggest that dietary protein in early pregnancy alters the development of the bovine placenta and calf growth to weaning

Epigenetics and developmental programming of welfare and production traits in farm animals

The concept that postnatal health and development can be influenced by events that occur in utero originated from epidemiological studies in humans supported by numerous mechanistic (including epigenetic) studies in a variety of model species. Referred to as the ‘developmental origins of health and disease’ or ‘DOHaD’ hypothesis, the primary focus of large-animal studies until quite recently had been biomedical. Attention has since turned towards traits of commercial importance in farm animals. Herein we review the evidence that prenatal risk factors, including suboptimal parental nutrition, gestational stress, exposure to environmental chemicals and advanced breeding technologies, can determine traits such as postnatal growth, feed efficiency, milk yield, carcass composition, animal welfare and reproductive potential. We consider the role of epigenetic and cytoplasmic mechanisms of inheritance, and discuss implications for livestock production and future research endeavours. We conclude that although the concept is proven for several traits, issues relating to effect size, and hence commercial importance, remain. Studies have also invariably been conducted under controlled experimental conditions, frequently assessing single risk factors, thereby limiting their translational value for livestock production. We propose concerted international research efforts that consider multiple, concurrent stressors to better represent effects of contemporary animal production systems

Global overview of the management of acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic (CHOLECOVID study)

Background: This study provides a global overview of the management of patients with acute cholecystitis during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: CHOLECOVID is an international, multicentre, observational comparative study of patients admitted to hospital with acute cholecystitis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data on management were collected for a 2-month study interval coincident with the WHO declaration of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and compared with an equivalent pre-pandemic time interval. Mediation analysis examined the influence of SARS-COV-2 infection on 30-day mortality. Results: This study collected data on 9783 patients with acute cholecystitis admitted to 247 hospitals across the world. The pandemic was associated with reduced availability of surgical workforce and operating facilities globally, a significant shift to worse severity of disease, and increased use of conservative management. There was a reduction (both absolute and proportionate) in the number of patients undergoing cholecystectomy from 3095 patients (56.2 per cent) pre-pandemic to 1998 patients (46.2 per cent) during the pandemic but there was no difference in 30-day all-cause mortality after cholecystectomy comparing the pre-pandemic interval with the pandemic (13 patients (0.4 per cent) pre-pandemic to 13 patients (0.6 per cent) pandemic; P = 0.355). In mediation analysis, an admission with acute cholecystitis during the pandemic was associated with a non-significant increased risk of death (OR 1.29, 95 per cent c.i. 0.93 to 1.79, P = 0.121). Conclusion: CHOLECOVID provides a unique overview of the treatment of patients with cholecystitis across the globe during the first months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The study highlights the need for system resilience in retention of elective surgical activity. Cholecystectomy was associated with a low risk of mortality and deferral of treatment results in an increase in avoidable morbidity that represents the non-COVID cost of this pandemic

Examining factors influencing Jordanian customers’ intentions and adoption of internet banking: Extending UTAUT2 with risk

YesThe key objective of this study is to propose and examine a conceptual model that best explains the key factors influencing Jordanian customers’ intentions and adoption of Internet banking. The conceptual model proposed was based on the extended Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT2). This was further extended by adding perceived risk as an external factor. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was conducted to analyse the data collected from the field survey questionnaires administered to a convenience sample of Jordanian banking customers. The results show that behavioural intention is significantly influenced by performance expectancy, effort expectancy, hedonic motivation, price value and perceived risk; however, social influence does not have a significant impact on behavioural intention. This study offers Jordanian banks some guidelines for designing and marketing such channel in order to enhance their acceptance by their customers

Increasing frailty is associated with higher prevalence and reduced recognition of delirium in older hospitalised inpatients: results of a multi-centre study

Purpose: Delirium is a neuropsychiatric disorder delineated by an acute change in cognition, attention, and consciousness. It is common, particularly in older adults, but poorly recognised. Frailty is the accumulation of deficits conferring an increased risk of adverse outcomes. We set out to determine how severity of frailty, as measured using the CFS, affected delirium rates, and recognition in hospitalised older people in the United Kingdom. Methods: Adults over 65 years were included in an observational multi-centre audit across UK hospitals, two prospective rounds, and one retrospective note review. Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), delirium status, and 30-day outcomes were recorded. Results: The overall prevalence of delirium was 16.3% (483). Patients with delirium were more frail than patients without delirium (median CFS 6 vs 4). The risk of delirium was greater with increasing frailty [OR 2.9 (1.8–4.6) in CFS 4 vs 1–3; OR 12.4 (6.2–24.5) in CFS 8 vs 1–3]. Higher CFS was associated with reduced recognition of delirium (OR of 0.7 (0.3–1.9) in CFS 4 compared to 0.2 (0.1–0.7) in CFS 8). These risks were both independent of age and dementia. Conclusion: We have demonstrated an incremental increase in risk of delirium with increasing frailty. This has important clinical implications, suggesting that frailty may provide a more nuanced measure of vulnerability to delirium and poor outcomes. However, the most frail patients are least likely to have their delirium diagnosed and there is a significant lack of research into the underlying pathophysiology of both of these common geriatric syndromes